Trump 2.0 inauguration. Executive orders begin rolling back trade agreements. Markets initially rally on deregulation hopes — but tariff signals emerge within days.

25% tariffs imposed on Canada & Mexico. 10% blanket tariff on China expanded. Trade War 2.0 officially begins. WTI crude drops on demand destruction fears. CAD and MXN collapse.

Friday the 13th. Nasdaq leads sell-off. NVDA breaks key support. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index drops sharply — biggest single-month decline since 2022. Markets enter correction territory.

S&P 500 peaks and reverses. DOGE spending cuts spook defense & government contractors. Federal layoffs hit consumer spending projections. Credit spreads begin widening. HYG (High Yield ETF) drops.

Equities down 8–10% from February highs. Gold breaks above $2,900 — safe haven bid accelerating. TLT (Long Bonds) catches a bid. Volatility (VIX) spikes. "Flight to safety" rotation begins in earnest.

Second Friday the 13th-equivalent sell-off event. Back-to-back market dislocations. Trump confirms additional 25% tariffs on Canadian steel & aluminum. European markets drop in sympathy. Fed holds — no rate cut language.

Full defensive posture active. 90% Cash. 10% Bonds. Zero equity exposure. Gold & bonds favored for next rotation. Watching for capitulation signal before re-entry.

CPI print expected to remain elevated. Fed trapped between inflation and recession. If unemployment ticks up — stagflation narrative takes hold. Watch for Gold to push toward $3,200+. Pre-recession allocation rotation begins.

Earnings season reveals tariff damage to corporate margins. GDP growth revised lower. If Fed pivots to cuts — bond position performs. If stagflation persists — Gold remains primary hedge. Equity re-entry only on confirmed capitulation + reversal signal.

Potential Fed rate cut cycle begins. Either soft landing (Bull Run allocation activates) or hard landing (full recession — defensive posture maintained, puts considered). This is the binary outcome we are positioning for.